Utah Moves Back Towards Drought
By Dan Pope, UCCW Director & Certified Broadcast Meteorologist
R. Clayton Brough and David R. James, UCCW Climatologists
May 20, 2007
See also UCCW's Latest Long-Range Outlook for Utah
As of May 20, 2007,
Utah's short lived wet spell of two years has dried up. Beginning
in late March and continuing through April and May of 2007, much
drier than normal weather has pushed Utah back into drought conditions.
To some degree, the six-year long drought that began in 1998 and
continued until the spring of 2005 has returned, and we are now
on the verge of a much longer dry period. According to NOAA's
most recent U.S.
Drought Monitor (unavailable when checked), most of Utah is in a drought, with the driest
area covering the Southwestern part of the state. (For further
statistical analysis and precipitation projections, see NOAA's Seasonal
Drought Outlook (dead link) and Long-Term
Drought Indicator, and UDWR's Utah
Drought Conditions.)
With Utah's drought conditions deteriorating,
when might our next long-term drought occur? According to dendroclimatology
and climatological statistics, Utah has experienced 10 droughts
in the past 205 years-with the longest one lasting 14 years, from
1870 to 1883. Interestingly, the droughts of the 1800's lasted
an average of 10 years, with 16 years between drought periods.
During the 1900's, droughts lasted an average of 8 years, with
13 years between drought periods. So over the past two centuries,
droughts have become a little more frequent but not as long-lasting.
According to climatological frequencies and probabilities, Utah
could possibly experience another drought period lasting six to
ten years beginning sometime within the next 10 to 16 years (or
sometime during 2015-2021). In the meantime--and because of our
expanding population and water use--we should increase our water
conservation efforts and improve and maintain our water storage
facilities.
