Utah's Drought is Over!
by R. Clayton Brough and David R. James, UCCW Climatologists
April 30, 2005
See also UCCW's Latest Long-Range Outlook for Utah
As of April 30, 2005,
Utah's six-year long drought is over! (The drought occurred during
the water-years of 1998-1999 through 2003-2004.) According to
NOAA's most recent U.S.
Drought Monitor (unavailable when checked), most of Utah is no longer in a drought. (For
further statistical analysis and precipitation projections, see
NOAA's Seasonal
Drought Outlook (dead link) and Long-Term
Drought Indicator, and UDWR's Utah
Drought Conditions.)
With Utah's latest drought at an
end, when might our next long-term drought occur? According to
dendroclimatology and climatological statistics, Utah has experienced
10 droughts in the past 205 years-with the longest one lasting
14 years, from 1870 to 1883. Interestingly, the droughts of the
1800's lasted an average of 10 years, with 16 years between drought
periods. During the 1900's, droughts lasted an average of 8 years,
with 13 years between drought periods. So over the past two centuries,
droughts have become a little more frequent but not as long-lasting.
According to climatological frequencies and probabilities, Utah
could possibly experience another drought period lasting six to
ten years beginning sometime within the next 10 to 16 years (or
sometime during 2015-2021). In the meantime--and because of our
expanding population and water use--we should increase our water
conservation efforts and improve and maintain our water storage
facilities.
